IPO Prophet® Heat Index
The IPO Prophet Heat Index blends multiple aspects of real IPO behavior into a single continuous time series that reveals the true health of the IPO market—long before the headlines.
What is the IPO Prophet Heat Index?
The IPO Prophet Heat Index blends multiple aspects of real IPO behavior into a single continuous time series:
- Recent IPO Performance — How new listings behave over their first days and weeks, the clearest reflection of risk appetite for new issuance.
- Breadth & Strength — A healthy market isn’t defined by one hot IPO. It’s defined by broad participation and sustained performance.
- Market Ability to Absorb New Supply — When investors are willing to accept new issuance, it shows up in the data long before it shows up in headlines.
These inputs are smoothed through moving averages and regime boundaries to create a stable, interpretable measure of market health.
IPO Prophet Heat Index
How the IPO Prophet Heat Index Works
High-Level View
The Heat Index ranges from 0 to 100, with four distinct regimes. These levels are based on more than 15 years of historical analysis.
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ICE-COLD (< 25)
Deals struggle to price. Weak opens and negative lower closes. Issuance slows sharply.
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LUKE-WARM (25 – 40)
Early recovery. Buyers are selective but present. Conditions begin to stabilize.
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WARM (40 – 60)
Sustained strength. More issuances, strong day-1 momentum, and pricing conditions turn favorable.
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HOT (> 60)
The window is wide open. Demand exceeds supply. Upside follow-through and accelerated issuance become common.